Euro 2012 – Golden Boot Contenders

Regular readers will know that I’ve been tracking the big game players across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and the Bundesliga, and with Euro 2012 just around the corner, I thought I’d post up the goalscoring stats of 50 players heading to Poland and the Ukraine based on the four leagues this season. Tournaments are made up of several high pressure big games, so who steps up and who bottles it?

First and foremost, the race for the golden boot, and who you should put your well earned money behind. These are the list of the players heading to the Euros with 20+ league goals behind them:

 1. Cristiano Ronaldo – If it wasn’t for Leo Messi, he’d be untouchable as the World’s best player at the moment. As it is, he’s still one of the top two. In a phrase normally reserved for the original Ronaldo, he’s been a phenomenom. Scoring 40+ goals is an amazing achievement, and he deserves the comparison with Clive Allen. Not that anyone has made that comparison. Anyway, Portugal have a toughest group with Germany, Holland and Denmark but Ronaldo’s 13 goals against Top 6 opponent’s including the winner away at Barcelona, proves that he can do it against the very best. He also has the small matter of proving to the World he can do it in a big tournament after just 3 goals in the last two Euros, and just one in the World Cup.

Best Odds: 14-1 Stan James and Bet Victor

2. Robin van Persie – There was always the question mark around Robin van Persie, what could he do if he was fit? Well this season finally saw this season answered at the age of 28. The first player to hit 30 Premier League goals in 4 years, he counted goals against Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea and Barcelona this season to prove he has the mentality for the big games. Like Ronaldo, he has something to prove on a tournament stage with just one goal in the 2010 World Cup as Holland got to the final, and in prior European Championships, he scored twice in 2008 from a wider position. This time he’ll most likely be playing down the middle. If not, he’ll be deployed behind Huntelaar, but still able to score. As with Ronaldo, he is also operating in the toughest group, which means the odds are that bit more generous.

Best Odds: 12-1 Paddy Power

3. Klaas Jan Huntelaar – Much like the two names above him, he has pretty generous odds dspite scoring a very impressive 29 league goals in a 34 game Bundesliga. However, looking at his goalscoring a little deeper, and you’ll see that he scored just twice against Top 6 teams, with a massive 12 goals coming against the bottom 4 teams (18 team league), which lends a Flat Track Bully tone to his impressive goalscoring. Being in the group if death, there’s not really any poor opposition for him to Bully. Another reason for the generous odds is that it’s still not decided who will play the central striking role for Holland. If it’s van Persie then Huntelaar will be on the bench, if it’s Huntelaar then van Persie will be moved either deeper of wider.

Best Odds: 18-1 Paddy Power

4. Zlatan Ibrahimovic – Everyone’s favourite pantomime villain had a bittersweet season. He has his most prolific league season with 28 league goals, but it’s the first time that he hasn’t won the league in 8 years. As with Huntelaar, there’s an element of the Flat Track Bully about his goals. You can probably expect him to score a hat trick against Ukraine and then do sod all against France and England – that’s if England can still be classed as a big team. As with all of those above him, he still has to prove himself on the biggest stages, and at 30, he’s running out of time. Why the long odds? Despite being one of the best players in Europe (and of all time in his head), Sweden aren’t expected to progress past the group stage. Based on prior tournaments, 5 goals could be enough, so a hat full against Ukraine and there’s a chance.

Best Odds: 50-1 Paddy Power, William Hill, Bet365, Bet Victor and Coral

5. Wayne Rooney – England’s main hope but suspended for the games against France and Sweden. He’ll be hoping that England are still in with a chance of qualifying come the final game against Ukraine. That may end up being a must win game, bringing with it big pressure. And that’s where Rooney comes good. This season’s 27 league goals saw 8 against Top 6 opposition, including a hat trick against Arsenal (finished 3rd) and a brace away at European Champions Chelsea. To get the golden boot is a big ask, but if he can notch a few against the co-hosts, momentum could see him carry on his scoring form into the rest of the tournament. He’s had two poor to average World Cups but his finest performances in an England shirt came in Euro 2004, so there is some hope.

Best Odds: 40-1 BetFred, Bet365, Bet Victor, Coral

6. Mario Gomez – See the below article for my thoughts on Mario Gomez. In short, he’s the biggest Flat Track Bully/Big Game Bottler of the lot. His tally of 26 goals was undoubtedly a good season, however, only 3 came against Top 6 opposition (only one based on positions at the time of play), and in both games against Dortmund in the league, and then in the cup final, he went missing. He has lots of shots and has little composure in the big games. There is some hope for those that have already bet on him – he scored a hat trick against Napoli and a double against Man City in the group stages of the Champions League. Maybe, just maybe he might grab a few against Portugal and Denmark in the group stages. A lot also depends on the fitness of Miroslav Klose. If he’s fit then Mario is on the bench, but it’s a big if. Amazingly he’s the favourite for the Golden Boot.

Best Odds: 8-1 Paddy Power, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Bet Victor

7. Antonio Di Natale – Despite being the ripe old age of 34, the Udinese striker has scored 80 goals in the last three Serie A seasons. This season saw him bang in 23 of those, 4 of which were scored against Top 6 Opposition. No one (Prandelli aside), is really sure who is going to start up front for the Italians, and so he’s a bit of a risk. And despite being prolific at club level, he has a rather more modest 10 goals in 36 appearances for his country. He has hinted that he may be retiring after (winning) the Euro’s so this could be his swansong, but he has a tough group and Balotelli in front of him.

Best Odds: 33-1 William Hill

8. Robert Lewandowski – A lot of people have him as the dark horse for the Golden Boot, and not without reason. The Borussia Dortmund striker is in fine form after notching 22 league goals last season as he picked up the double. He also scored a hat trick in the German Cup Final against Bayern Munich – big game mentality it seems, though he only had 3 goals against the remaining Top 5 teams in Germany. Poland have the added advantage of being hosts, and their group of Greece, Czech Republic and Russia, should see them qualify, and give Lewandowski the chance to score a few.

Best Odds: 25-1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, BetFred

9.Karim Benzema -2011-12 became the season that Benzema finally delivered on his promise with Real Madrid. Despite only being the 3rd Top Scorer at his club (Behind Ronaldo and Higuain), he still hit a decent 21 league goals for the Spanish Champions. Only three of these were against Top 6 teams though, and in the Champions League semi final, it was Ronaldo and Ozil that scored over the two legs as the Madrid giants went out, so there is the question mark over his contribution in the biggest games, although he can point to a goal against Barcelona earlier in the season. Another question mark is whether he’ll be a starter for France, with rumours of Olivier Giroud (21 goals in Ligue Un – 50-1) being favourite. A group containing England, Sweden and the Ukraine is tough-ish, but not without it’s opportunities.

Best Odds: 16-1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Betfair, Bet365, BetFred, Bet Victor, Coral

The Others:

The one that really stands out for me is Miroslav Klose – he has a history of delivering in the big tournaments (14 World Cup goals, and Quarter and Semi final goals in Euro 2008) and whilst fit with Lazio for the first half of the season, he certainly delivered – scoring 13 goals in just 25 games in a new country. Add to that his Polish background and it all looks promising for the big striker. The only downside is his injury. He missed the latter parts of the season for Lazio, and whilst he did play for Germany at the weekend, he’s still short on match fitness. Germany will certainly be better with him in the team over Gomez. His odds are 16-1 with Paddy Power.

German team mate Lukas Podolski should be pretty much guaranteed his starting place in the team, and despite relegation, he scored a decent 18 goals for Cologne. And what’s more, not one was against the lower ranked opponents, with the Polish born forward hitting 6 aganist the Top teams. Add to that his prior performances in tournament football and like Klose, his affinity with Poland, and all of a sudden he looks pretty good at 25-1. Although he does play more from wide for the German national team.

Spain is an interesting one, with David Villa out through injury, and the decision to leave Roberto Soldado at home, it looks like a choice between a re-energised Torres (20-1) or Bilbao’s Llorente (16-1). It’s hard to call who will start, but del Bosque is a loyal coach, and with Torres’ high profile goal against Barcelona fresh in the mind, he may well get the nod. Llorente’s club season only finished on Friday due to the lateness of the Copa del Rey.

Aside from that, Mario Balotelli at 25-1 isn’t a bad shout. His goals dried up in the second half of the season, but he was undoubtedly a big game performer – at home with pressure. Think to the two goals away at Old Trafford and the coolness of the last minute penalty to win the game against a title chasing Spurs. The downside is that he’s mental and could easily get sent off as score a goal. Group games against Croatia and the Republic of Ireland will allow him ample opportunity to influence the tournament.

The Midfielders (and John Terry):

For slightly more generous odds, there’s plenty of goalscoring talent from deep:

Bayern Munich duo Robben and Ribery can be found at 40-1 and 66-1 respectively. Both had fine goalscoring seasons as Munich challenged (though failed) on three fronts – though neither really did it on the big occasion, with Robben in particular missing important chances (including penalties) to add to the idea that he bottles it on the biggest occasion – think of his chances in the World Cup Final. Elsewhere, Gerrard didn’t score many this year, but the 5 league goals came against Man Utd (2nd), Newcastle (5th) and local rivals Everton (7th) – all big games. He has the added responsibility of captaining the team, and it would appear as though he’s playing a more disciplined Central Midfield role. At 80-1, BetFred are offering the best odds.

Thomas Mueller got the Golden Boot at the 2010 World Cup with 5 goals. He hasn’t had a vintage season with Munich with just 7 goals, but 3 were against Top 6 opponents, and most recently, he scored in the Champions League Final to put the Germans ahead. At 25-1, he’s not a bad bet.

Not on the list but featuring heavily for Irish betting is Robbie Keane. He’s played mainly in North America this season, though his 3 goal cameo for Aston Villa on loan showed that he was still Premier League class – though fans of West Ham would question that based on 2010-11 performances. He’s the all time Ireland leading scorer with a decent 53 goals, and in the last tournament he played (World Cup 2002), he scored a decent 3 goals, including a last minute equaliser against eventual finalists Germany. He can be found at 150-1 on Coral.

For those patriotic and slightly foolish England fans who have more money than sense, John Terry (6 goals last season) can be backed at 250-1!

The full odds used in the above article can be found here.

Cheers,

Liam

Player Comparison – Didier Drogba vs Mario Gomez

Granted, they’re not in the same league (in every sense), but with the recent Champions League Final in mind, I thought it was interesting to note that the whereabouts of the Trophy could have been very different if the strikers had swapped teams. This is less a comparison of two equal competitors, more a study into a Big Game Player versus a Big Game Bottler or Flat Track Bully (to keep in theme with the rest of the site). The fifth entry into the Player Comparison Series looks at Chelsea’s Didier Drogba and Bayern Munich’s Mario Gomez

The Contenders:

Going into the Champions League Final, Didier Drogba of Chelsea and the Ivory Coast had recently turned 34. It was his final game for the club after eight successful seasons which saw him pick up three Premier League titles, four FA Cups, two League Cups and finally, a Champions League medal. In 338 games for the Blues, he scored 157 goals, at a rate of a goal every 2.1 games. Before the final, the two time African Player of the Year had just 12 goals for Chelsea this season, 5 of which were in the Champions League.

Mario Gomez on the other hand is in his striking prime. Aged just 26, he could lay claim to being the most prolific Champions League striker in the history of the competition, with a goal every 96.8 minutes (24 goals in total) as seen here. The Germany International has league titles with both Stuttgart and Bayern Munich, as well as cup success domestically. Since joining Bayern Munich in the summer of 2009, he’s scored 94 goals in 142 games for the club. This season, he was going into the final with a whopping 41 goals, 13 of which were in the Champions League.

Looking at the scoring stats, if there was a player to bet on, it was surely Gomez.

Champions League:

Not only had Gomez scored 13 in this season’s European Cup, he also hit 4 in one game – against Basel in the second round. In the earlier group stage, he hit a hat trick against Napoli, a brace against Manchester City, and in the Semi Final first leg at home to the mighty Real Madrid, he scored the winner as Bayern beat Mourinho’s men 2-1. I know what you’re thinking, Big Game Player? Well not really. The four goals against Basel was undoubtedly a great achievement, and I’d be a fool to suggest otherwise. Whilst Basel aren’t exactly giants of the European game, they had knocked out Manchester United in the group stages. This however, was not the same Basel. Gomez’s four goals came in a 7-1 victory for Munich. The hat trick against Napoli and brace against City were also good scoring feats, but these were in the lower pressure environment of the group stage. The pressure was certainly on in the Semi Final against Real Madrid, and whilst you can point to his winning goal, i’ll point to the fact that he missed several good chances before scoring from 4 yards, off his manhood after missing the ball with his feet. Every dog has his day.

Drogba on the other hand was a lot more selective with his goals. He scored 2 in the group stage against Valencia – a game that would see the winners go through, adding the extra pressure of a knockout environment. He scored one against Napoli in the 4-1 second leg win, after losing the first Quarter Final 3-1. Once again, pressure of the knockout, and at the time he scored, Chelsea were losing on aggregate. The Semi Final goal against Barcelona had the pressure of a Champions League semi final, added presure of playing the best team in the world, and also scoring with just about Chelsea’s only shot. The big man delivered once again. And then onto the final – 88th minute, losing the biggest game in club football – up steps the man for the big occasion for the equaliser, and later, the winning penalty.

Finals:

The thing is, it should have been no surprise. Drogba is a Big Game Player. Looking at the Finals he’s played in, and the contribution he’s made:

Nine Major Finals appearances have seen 9 Final goals. That’s quite simply unbelievable. Add in five more scoring Semi Finals and you have the picture of a Big Game Player. And what’s more, every goal has been decisive – not one of the Finals was a walkover. Not only that, look at the opponents – Man Utd, Liverpool (twice), Arsenal, Bayern Munich – none too shabby. He doesn’t have a goal in the Champions League Final of 2008, though that’s partly due to being sent off. If he’d still been on the pitch then it’s likely that he’d have taken the final penalty instead of John Terry.

And whilst Gomez hasn’t played in the number of Finals that the Drog has, he has still had the chance to make an impact on the biggest stages:

Granted, some of the appearances were as a substitue, but it’s fair to say – there’s still a trend. In fact, the only real big game with real pressure that he’s bothered the scoresheet in, was the aforementioned Champions League Semi Final against Real Madrid. He’s still young, and plays in a team that creates a lot of chances, but for one of the most prolific strikers playing in Europe today, he’d be expected to do better than one goal in all of the Finals and Semi Finals he’s played in. Flat Track Bully? I would suggest so.

League Form:

And as if further proof were needed, here’s some stats from my last Bundesliga Updates:

It was only his last goal of the 26 that saw him finally score against Top 6 opposition as Bayern beat 6th placed Stuttgart 2-0 at home in a game that neither side had anything to play for. He had 10 games agaisnt Top 6 opponents, and scored in just one of them. In my eyes, this pretty much confirms the Flat Track Bully status. When Bayern needed him most this season – in the title decider against Dortmund, he went missing, posting just one shot.

Drogba? Well it’s fair to say that it wasn’t a vintage season in the Premier League for the big Ivorian, scoring just 5 goals

The goal return, whilst poor for his standards, still has a pretty even split throughout the level of opposition. What this does illustrate though, is just how much Drogba rises to the big occasion. Five league goals? So what, I’m gonna score decisive goals in two big knock out competitions. Looking back through Drogba’s more recent past, he scored the winning goal away at Old Trafford in 2009-10 to put Chelsea Top of the league with just a handful of games remaining. In terms of Big Games in the league, to score the winner away at the team challenging you for the title, in a game that would ultimately decide who wins the league, there aren’t any bigger. You could argue, that he could do it on the final day of the season – like Alan Smith for Arsenal against Liverpool, but that would be splitting hairs. In fact, all throughout his Chelsea career, he’s tormented Arsenal (13 goals), Liverpool (7 goals), Spurs (5 goals), Man City (5 goals) and Manchester United (3 goals). He is a man for the big games.

International Goals:

Lastly, whilst at Club Level, Drogba is pretty much untouchable in the big games, I thought i’d give Gomez the chance to tap in a consolation goal by looking at their International Records. From memory, I know that Drogba has missed decisive spot kicks in the final of the African Cup of Nations (2006 and 2012) to cost the Ivory Coast a deserved title. However, when looking at his international goals, whilst there are many against the likes of Benin and Equatorial Guinea, I was somewhat surprised to see goals against Argentina and Brazil. And not just friendly goals either – these were in World Cups. He has 7 goals in the African Cup of Nations, and 8 in qualifiers. Add to that 15 goals in World Cup qualifiers, and all of a sudden, his international career is pretty good with 32 competitive goals. In all, he has an impressive 54 goals in 84 caps for his country (0.64 goals per game).

Gomez also has a decent strike rate at international level – with 21 in 51 (0.41 goals per game). Being in Europe, he has the opportunity to play against higher ranked teams in qualifiers than Drogba would, and also by playing in a better team, he will have more opportunities. However, a closer look at his 21 goals, and all of a sudden the Flat Track Bully tag raises it’s head. Four goals in a friendly against the UAE (then ranked 122nd) stand out. Okay, well there’s still 17 other goals. How about two against San Marino, and one against Kazakhstan? I am painting a slightly negative picture here – to be fair, he’s also got 3 against Austria (currently 73rd), 3 against Switzerland (then 40th), and strikes against Australia, Uruguay, Turkey and Belgium. However, it’s when looking in the games he hasn’t scored in that illustrates him going missing – Brazil (won 3-2, no goals), Argentina, England, Spain, Sweden – decent opposition = no goals.

In Conclusion:

It’s not really much of a debate. For all the plaudits that Gomez has received for admittedly impressive goals scoring feats, he’s not the man to rely on for the big occasion. It’s not that he doesn’t get chances, he does. He has plenty of shots, even in most of the big games, it’s just that he has very little composure – more power than poise. In the Champions League final, he managed a decent five shots, the Germany Cup Final saw him have four shots without scoring, whilst the second leg 2-1 defeat to Real Madrid, saw a whopping 8 shots! Of course, there was no goal. That’s three big games, all high pressure, and his 17 shots yielded zero goals. I am of course being a little harsh and overlooking the goal in the first leg against Real Madrid – so if we were to include that then it’s a whopping one goal from 23 shots.

Drogba on the other hand is lethal, and actually thrives under the pressure of a big game. His three goals in the Champions League Final, FA Cup Final and Semi Final win over Barcelona came from just 9 shots. You’ve either got it or you haven’t.

In all honesty, I could have just showed the tables of Final appearances and goals and left it at that. But I’m nothing if not thorough. Whilst Drogba is coming to the end of his career as he jets off to China, Gomez is still very much in his prime. Someone as prolific as him will no doubt effect a big game eventually, but I think the evidence suggests that as of now, he’s very much a Flat Track Bully, and doesn’t justify the price tag being thrown around next to his name. He doesn’t appear to have the right mentality to take the good chances that are fewer in Bigger Games. He takes plenty of shots – some ridiculous – but the nerve and confidence seems to dessert him when it really matters. Anyone who watched the Champions League Final and Semi Finals will have noticed how often he skied the ball, or just shot straight at the keeper.

Going into the European Championships, I’d back him to get a few goals in the lower pressure environment of the group stages against Portugal and Denmark, but do very little against the Dutch in game two, and sod all if they get into the knock out stages. Of course, if I’ve called this wrong, this article will magically disappear and a tribute to Super Mario will be quickly thrown together.

Farewell Didier, you’ve been immense – the epitome of a big game player.

Mario – you must do better (1 min 15 secs is my favourite miss)

Request: Friedel vs Gomes

“Any chance of comparison Gomes and Brad Friedel for Spurs?”

Yep.

Background:

Heurelho Gomes signed for Spurs at the start of the 2008-09 season after a very good career with PSV Eindhoven. With the Dutch Giants, he won several plaudits, league titles and also impressed in the Champions League. During his time in Eindhoven, the Brazilian keeper kept a clean sheet in 60% of his league games. Tottenham were signing an established keeper and a Brazilian international. After a over coming an error prone start at Spurs, Gomes went on to establish himself as one of the best shot stoppers in the league. However, the 2010-11 season saw the errors creep back into his game with Spurs missing out on a Champions League spot by one place. As a result, Manager Harry Redknapp decided to bring in the experienced (old) Aston Villa keeper Brad Friedel to provide competition and a bit of stability. And stability was the name of the game with the veteran American who had played 266 consecutive league games for Blackburn and Aston Villa.

Personnel:

The goals conceded per game obviously doesn’t paint a full picture for each keeper as it’s just as dependent on the defenders in front of them. And there’s been plenty of change at Spurs since 2008-09. Ledley King, Younes Kaboul, Michael Dawson, Sebastien Bassong, Jonathan Woodgate and William Gallas have invariably made up the central defensive positions whilst Benoit Assou-Ekotto, Corluka, Alan Hutton and more recently Kyle Walker have been at full back.

King, Dawson, and Assou Ekotto have taken part in each season, with Kaboul currently back in his second spell at the club.

The Stats:

Starting with the basics, goals conceded per game:

The goals conceded per game obviously doesn’t paint a full picture for each keeper as it’s just as dependent on the defenders in front of them, but it can help to paint a picture. Gomes’ first season wasn’t actually as bad as first expected. Letting in on average 1.2 goals per game isn’t actually too bad a rate for a debut season, considering he was considered a flop. Based on a 38 game season, it would have worked out at around 45 goals conceded. Bearing in mind that Spurs finished 8th (Apparently they only had 2 points from 8 games when Harry took over), it’s not too bad. He conceded his highest number of goals against Top 6 teams that season, but it has to be remembered that there were two extra games as Spurs were outside the Top 6.

It was in season two for Gomes that he started to really show top form, as Spurs finished 4th to reach the Champions League. Playing in 31 games, Gomes only let in a measely 27 goals, at a rate of 0.871. Only 9 goals were let in against fellow Top 6 teams as Spurs made the step up. Looking at the table above, it’s by far the lowest rate of goals conceded.

Then something went wrong. Perhaps the threat of Carlo Cudicini had an effect on his confidence, but season 2010-11 was not pretty for the Brazilian. League form aside, he was sent off against Inter Milan in the Champions League (in the Gareth Bale game), whist this clanger against Real Madrid wasn’t out of character for him:

In the league, he let in 1.3 goals per game in an error prone season, that finished in Spurs giving up their spot in the Top 4. It was enough for Redknapp to look elsewhere. Step forward big bad Brad. To the naked eye, Friedel’s impact was solid if unspectacular. He played all 38 games, conceding a decent 41 goals, at a rate of 1.079 per game. However, scratch a little deeper and you’ll remember that 10 goals were conceded in two games against Man City (5-1 at the Lane) and North London Rivals, Arsenal (5-2 at the Emirates). A revised rate of 31 in the other 36 games is a lot better.

So what of clean sheets?

Well apart from Gomes’ nightmare 2010-11 season, there’s not a great deal in it. Friedel leads the way with 14 shut outs, but that’s in more games that Gomes, who kept 12 in both his first two seasons. In terms of the level of opposition, it’s actually the Brazilian that did it more often against the Top 6 teams – and the two clean sheets against Man City in 2009-10 contributed massively as Spurs finished above the Manchester team by just 3 points. He also had the higher ranking average opponent per clean sheet with 10.83 in 2008-09, and 10.71 in 2010-11 – despite only keeping 7.

Next up, is a bit more specific to the keepers – saves made.

Once again, it’s Gomes that comes out on top in his first season. In fact, his calamity filled season of 2010-11 still saw 115 saves made in just 30 games. So whilst he conceded goals at a higher rate that year, he actually made more saves per game. Saves in the big games against the Top 6 were highest in 2008-09, with 45 (12 games), though the 39 made by both keepers in the last two seasons, were in 10 games – 3.9 per game.

Mistakes, I’ve made a few….

Unfortantely for Gomes though, it’s not the saves that people remember about him. No, it’s the mistakes. One last bit of data somes up the two keeper quite nicely – cards. Now generally if a keeper has been booked, it’s because they’ve more than likely given away a penalty with a rash/mistimed challenge. That and the odd bit of time wasting. Friedel had no cards in his Premier League appearances this season, which is a stark contrast to Gomes in his previous season:

Them the stats.

In Conclusion:

It’s ultimately an inexact science comparing two keepers over slightly differing time periods. They’ve had different defences in front of them, and even when the same defences have played, the players will be a year older and slower, or perhaps a year more experienced, depending on where they are in their careers. But in my opinion, and based on the stats, and having watched the two play in the last few years, it’s a slightly on the fence conclusion.

Gomes in his first and particularly his second season was actually a very good keeper for Spurs. He had the best goals per game ratio (conceded), he had the most saves, and also the most clean sheets against the Top 6 teams. In his second season, he also had the lowest number of goals conceded. Many Spurs fans will no doubt have a memory of some World Class saves, but for each of those, their will be neutrals who remember these sort of mistakes:

His confidence unfortunately disappeared in his third season, and the number of mistakes and rash challenges increased. With that in mind, despite the previous good form shown, Harry had no option other than to make a change in between the sticks. At 40 (now 41), Friedel wasn’t signed for the long term, but to help Spurs grab those extra few points to make it into the Top 4. In that sense, he’s been a success. He’s kept 14 clean sheets, and has a decent save ratio. It’s not so much a question of who’s the better keeper, more a question of who’s the better keeper right now. And for Spurs at the moment, it’s Friedel. He’s been safe, commanding and consistant, and whilst Gomes is more likely to pull off the spectacular, he’s also more error prone. Friedel, like all keepers will and does make mistakes, but what makes the best keepers stand out about the rest is the rarity of these.

I’m not sure this ultimately concludes the argument, but the fact that Harry didn’t once use Gomes this season in the league, with just 3 Europa League appearances and one League Cup start. Carlo Cudicini made 7 FA Cup appearances and 5 Europa League starts.

Hopefully these slightly flawed points (due to changing defences/opposition) will help settle the arguments.

Cheers,

Liam

Serie A Round 38

With the League title already decided, focus on the final day of the season in Italy turned elsewhere. In terms of importance, 3rd spot was still to be decided for the final Champions League place, whilst the final relegation place was also available for one unlucky winner/loser.

Aside from the harsh business of results and placings, there was also the feeling that Serie A had reached the end of an era. In all likelihood, Seedorf, Nesta, Inzaghi and Gattuso all played their final games for AC Milan (Seedorf to be confirmed) but the most emotional farewell was in Turin as Alessandro Del Piero played his final game at home for Juventus. And what a send off it was. And rightly so. He joined in 1993 from Padova, played 704 games, scored 289 goals and won a truckload of medals – Serie A, Serie B, Copa Italia, UEFA Super Cup, Intercontinental Cup, and the Champions League. He played alongside some of the all time Juve greats – Zidane, Davids, Vialli, Baggio, Nedved, Buffon and countless others. In short it’s been a great career. He signed off with a goal – not the trademark finish from the left of the area (the Del Piero Zone) into the far corner, but still a good hit with a bit of curl from his trusty right boot, into the near post. His goal can be seen by clicking here, but below is the send off he got. You’ll notice that the game was actually still being played as he completed his lap of honour:

He’s been a great player, and to see him leaving Juventus has been similar to seeing Raul leaving Madrid, Keane leaving Man United and Christian Vieri stay at a club for more than a season – it was sad to see. But this isn’t averageEmotions.com (I’m not sure if that exists, I wouldn’t recommend clicking on it), this is a football site looking at the big game players. And as so, despite him being one of my all time favourites, I have to check Del Piero’s record. And I’m afraid it’s not that good. Looking at the finals he’s played in, there’s not a lot of goals:

Five goals isn’t a great return from a player of his ability. Yes, he has scored in the Champions League Final, and to be fair, he didn’t start all of the above games, but you’d expect more from him. The one that sticks in the mind the most is the Final of Euro 2000 when he missed several good chances to wrap up the game for Italy. Redemption was found in the World Cup Semi Final in 2006 to an extent, but for Juventus, three of his five final goals came in the Super Cup/Intercontinental Cup which are no more than glorified friendlies. So in terms of the big game player stakes, he’s more Henry than Zidane, but he’s still been a great player.

Back to the present though, Del Piero’s goal helped Juve beat Atalanta 3-1 on the final day. This meant that they finished the season unbeaten. This is the first time in the history of Serie A that a team has acheived this over a 38 game season. In short, it’s a phenomenal achievement, in my eyes it’s better than Messi’s 50 league goals. Especially from the starting point. Juve finished 7th last year with a leaky defence. This year they’ve won the league by 4 points, have the best defence and have really done this all as a team. Their top scorer (Matri) has just 10 goals, but they have the highest number of different scorers with 21 (thanks to two more on the final day). I’ll be covering Juve’s achievement more in the coming weeks.

In terms of the outstanding issues, it was some what of a damp squib. Udinese started the day in 3rd. They won. Lecce started the day in 18th. They lost. There wasn’t really the drama that we’ve seen in the Premier League and La Liga. Among the Udinese goalscorers in a 2-0 win over 10th placed Catania was Di Natale. Despite being 34, he’s once again finished in the Top 5 scorers, this time with 23 goals. Whilst the goal against Catania improved his average, he’s still the Flat Track Bully of those with 10 goals or more with an average of 11.91. It’s slightly misleading in the sense that he has in fact scored against 5 Top 6 teams, it’s just the 10 against the Bottom 6 opponents that slightly skews it. He won’t care though, Champions League football is coming (providing he doesn’t retire as rumour has it).

The final scorers table based on opponent’s rankings at the time of playing shows that Fabrizio Miccoli is the Big Game Player in terms of Average (7.38) and goals against the Top 6 – with a decent offering of 9 hits. In terms of assists, i’ll be reviewing in the final season review, but he’s flying high there as well. A great season by the veteran Palermo forward.

Zlatman wins the golden boot with 28 goals and a decent averate of 10.93. Six goals against the best teams suggests he can be happy enough with his input this season. Milito scored again at the weekend in the 3-1 defeat to Lazio. That takes him into 2nd place on goals scored, and another goal against Top 6 teams. His average of 9.21 is the best of those with 20+ goals.

I’ll give a bit more detail in the season review, and also plan to compare Juventus’ unbeaten season with Arsenal’s in 2003-04 in the coming weeks.

Cheers,

Liam

La Liga Round 38

With the league title wrapped up, it was just a case of Real Madrid flexing their muscles and break their own records. In beating 7th placed Mallorca they wracked up a massive 100 points from a possible 114 (which is mental), and in scoring another 4 goals (Ronaldo, Benzema, Ozil x 2), they extended their own goals scored recored to 121 goals. I’m gonna put my neck on the line here and suggest that it’s not going to be beaten in a regular 38 game season. It’s impressive.

But that’s not where the drama lay at the weekend. Far from it. It was the fight to avoid relegation that had the Man City-esque ending, for Rayo Vallecano at least. The real story was Villarreal’s relegation from La Liga. The same Villarreal that was in the Champions League this season after finishing last year in 4th place. The same Villarreal that have qualified for European Football for the last 8 seasons (including a 2nd and 3rd place). They’ve had a terrible season under three different coaches, but the way they went down was just cruel. Starting the day in the relative safety of 16th, they were facing Atletico Madrid (5th – chasing a Champions League spot) at home, whilst Rayo Vallecano and Real Zaragoza who started the day in 17th and 18th were facing Granada at home (15th) and away at 11th placed Getafe respectively. Real Zaragoza continued their amazing recent form, by swatting aside Getafe 2-0. That made it four wins in a row and eight in the last eleven games to guarantee safety. That left one place between Villarreal, Vallecano and Granada. Villarreal could draw and guarantee safety regardless of the result in the other game, and up until the 88th minute, they were. Then Falcao (12.83) struck for Atleti. Not to worry, it was still 0-0 in the other game, meaning Rayo would be going down. That was, until the 90th minute, when veteran striker Raul Tamudo scored to put them ahead. And just like that, Villarreal were down. They could have drawn and send down Granada, but it wasn’t to be. It’s a shame for a small team that had consistently punched above their weight, but the loss of Santi Cazorla (Malaga), Joan Capdevila (Benfica) and most crucially Guiseppe Rossi (injury).

The battle for 4th was settled with a little less drama. Malaga started the day in 4th, and facing 19th placed Sporting, the only surprising thing is that they only won 1-0. Despite all the big name signings after new ownership came, it was last season’s top scorer Jose Rondon who grabbed the winner. It was the 22 year old Venezuelan striker’s 11th goal of the season (10.81) after 14 last season. With the likes of van Nistelrooy, Toulalan, Cazorla and Demichelis coming in, there was a sense of change as Malaga looked to reach the Champions League in a slightly more measured approach than recent Billionnaire owned clubs, and it looks to have paid off.

Regular readers (hi Mum) will know that I oaccsionally have a bit of a pop at Falcao for his Flat Track Bully ways. People can point to the Europa League Final (last two years) in his Big Game Player defence, and whilst it is a great achievement, there’s a nagging feeling I have that maybe it’s his level. In the league, of his 24 league goals, only 2 were against Top 6 opponents (albeit the big two), which is a pretty paltry return for a player being valued at £50million. His goals against Bilbao in the Europa League final were effectively against 9th placed opposition, whilst the goal to relegate Villarreal was against Bottom 6 opposition. Now I know you can only beat what’s in front of you, but of a possible 10 games against Top 6 teams, to score in only two of them is questionable for a Superstar Striker. An average ranked opponent per goal of 12.83 would back up the Flat Track Bully claims, though it’s still a good way behind del Moral’s 17.30. He takes teh official Flat Track Bully tag for the La Liga season based on opponent’s ranking at the time of play. I’ll be looking at it from the final league rankings in the end of season review in the coming weeks.

One man who cannot be labelled a Flat Track Bully is Real Betis striker Ruben Castro (Martin). Having been key in the promotion campaign last year, he scored his first La Liga goals for four years this season, and several more followed. He finished the season on 16 goals, and most of them were important. He averaged a point per goal as Betis finished in the safety of 13th. What’s more, of the 16 league goals, half of them were against Top 6 opponents, including a brace at the weekend in the 2-2 draw against Barcelona (previously the best football team in the galaxy of all time ever). In fact, he scored in both games against Barcelona, as well as scoring against Valencia and Malaga this year. His average of 9.13 was slightly lower due to the 5 goals he scored against Bottom 6 teams, but all in all, he can be classed firmly as a Big Game Player. But not the biggest. Cristiano Ronaldo may have embarrassed himself and his family with a measley 46 league goals this season, but at least he can take consolation that 16 of them were against the Top 6 teams. That’s easily the highest in Europe – ahead of Messi’s 13. In terms of average opposition ranking, it’s Alexis Sanchez who has the best rating of 6.91 based on positions at the time of playing. Especially well done in a debut season in a new country.

Full Season review to follow with bells and whistles in the coming weeks.

Cheers,

Liam

Premier League Round 38

Well that was a bit nuts wasn’t it? League leaders, battle for 3rd and the last relegation spot all changed hands on more than one occasion. So let’s start off in Manchester:

Manchester City became only the fifth different team to win the Premier League, in it’s 20 year history. For those that didn’t follow the final day and just saw the results, then there wasn’t really any big surprise. Man City with the best home record in the league beat QPR with the worst away record – they were always going to. But, what a way to do it.

Up to the 90th minute, it looked that for all of City’s millions and new players, their old characteristic of making a balls of promising situations, would shine through (much like Idiot Joey Barton’s inherent anger issues despite his reading of philosophy). In the end though, iIt’s fair to say that City’s two injury time goals to win 3-2 was very very Manchester United in nature. Think back to the game against Sheffield Wednesday back in the early days of the Premier League, and the 2-1 Champions League Final win over Munich in ’99. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

In terms of big game performances, Pablo Zabaleta picked a great game to score his first of the season, whilst Aguero (12.22) deserves the biggest credit after scoring his 23rd league goal in the dying seconds to bring City their first league title since 1968. Last minute of the final game of the season, about to lose the league – that’s big game temprement. Similarly, although I’ve criticised him for being a Flat Track Bully, Edin Dzeko (14.71) delivered when needed most. The reason I call him a flat track bully is that his average ranked opponent per goal of 14.71 is the lowest of any player with 10 goals or more. A player that cost over £30 million should be scoring more than 14 league goals in the best team, and 9 of those have been against teams in the Bottom 6 positions. All of that matters not a jot now though as he gave City hope.

One player who has also been criticised (albeit for different reasons) is Mario Balotelli. The complete opposite of Dzeko in terms of the opponents he’s scored against, Balotelli finished with the highest average opposition with 8.77. He usually delivers in the big games and normally against highly ranked opposition, but given the nature of this game, it was the biggest game of the season, especially at 2-1 down. Mad Mario got the assist for Aguero’s winner, and gained redemption at the same time.

It was City’s performances against the other Top 6 teams that effectively won them the title. Balotelli scored 5 of the 20 goals they hit against the best teams. Seven wins, just two defeats and one draw gave them 22 points from the 30 available against the elite, which not only helped their points haul, but also took the points from their opponents – with every win effectively being a 6 point swing in City’s favour.

Of course it’s easy to forget just how close United were to winning it – seconds. All of the plaudits to City are well deserved, but the same should be offered to United – to an extent. Whilst they matched City for wins and points, the way they earned the points was very different:

No clean sheets against Top 6 opponents, three wins against Top 6 opponents compared to 13 wins against Bottom 6 opponents. This is based on the league position at the time (meaning that due to timing and form, they played Bottom 6 teams on 15 occasions, rather than 12). Their haul of 11 points against Top 6 teams compared to City’s 22 would point to a deserved title for City. Wayne Rooney scored a career best 27th league goal against Sunderland (12.04), but on another day could have claimed the golden boot with an effort against the bar, one against the post and he also missed a sitter.

I’ll be putting together a season review in the coming weeks of each league, looking at the stats based on final position.

Arsenal managed to put behind them some recent shaky form (3 points from the last 12 available), to clinch 3rd spot, just ahead of North London Rivals Tottenham. Beating West Brom 3-2 away, they had to rely on goals from Benayoun, Santos and Koscielny to cement the win, as well as a helping hand (literally) from West Brom keeper Martin Fulop. And it’s a good thing, as Golden Boot winner Robin van Persie has only scored in 3 of their last 10 league games. Those who wrote off Arsene Wenger early on in the season will probably deny doing so, but the Frenchman has now taken Arsenal to Champions League qualification every single season he’s been in charge. He knows.

And in terms of relegation, despite losing to Man City, QPR managed to stay up due to Bolton’s failure to beat Stoke. The Trotters end an 11 year stay in the Premier League after going seven wins without a win. Strangely, their best run of the season was in the midst of their worst crisis – with Muamba’s collapse coinciding with a four game winning run. Unfortunately for Bolton fans, it wasn’t enough as both QPR and Wigan defied the odds to stay up.

In terms of the final Average Opposition scoring table (based on the time of play), Robin van Persie finished the season with most goals against the Top 6 teams with a decent 7 strikes. Mario Balotelli shares the Big Game Player tag with him with an average of 8.77, after Adebayor’s recent flirtation with mid to lower table teams. Nikica Jelavic deserves an honourable mention as his 9 goals have been against an average ranked opponent of 6.67 – by far the best of those players with 5 goals or more. Today’s strike against Newcastle was his fourth against Top 6 teams (two versus United and one versus Spurs), and he had none against Bottom 6 teams. Another player who can lay claim to being a big game player is West Brom’s Shane Long (8 goals – 9.12). His goal against Arsenal sits alongside strikes against Man Utd, Chelsea and Newcastle, not bad for a debut season in the Premier League.

The Flat Track Bully as mentioned earlier was Edin Dzeko. His goal against 17th placed QPR pushed him ahead of Rafael van der Vaart at the death. His average of 14.71 is considerably better when looking at the average based on Final League positions though. Yakubu (12.41), Grant Holt (10.33) and Danny Graham (12.42) all scored on the final day to cap impressive seasons – certainly against what was expected of them.

I’m hoping to get season review up in the next week or two (still getting to grips with fatherhood – even after 2 weeks of practice), and over the summer i’ll be comparing Tevez (2009-10) vs Aguero (2011-12) and Arsenal’s invincibles of 2003-04 versus Juventus 2011-12.

Cheers,

Liam

Premier League Round 37

Winning goal in the FA Cup Semi Final against best team in the country last year? Check.

Winning goal in the FA Cup Final after 35 years without a trophy? Check.

A brace to put your team top of the table going into the final day? Check.

Yep, it’s fair to say that Yaya Toure is a big game player. Although I don’t want to say that his goals against Newcastle (5th) have decided the whereabouts of this years Premier League, they’ve certainly been very important, and that was certainly in the high prerssure environment of a big game. I’ll admit that I had him down as a midfielder that scored a lot of goals (after his more defensive role in Barcelona), so it was surprising to see that his double at Newcastle were only his 5th and 6th (8.33) league goals of the season (matching last years 6). Either way, when the pressure was on, it was Toure Junior that stepped up. Though a nod must go to the defence who kept Cisse out, who had done this in last week’s game against Chelsea:

I know that was last week, but it was just awesome! And it’s worth noting that after 11 goals against average opposition (11.91), he’s now scored against a Top 6 team in Chelsea, taking his average up to 11.00. Add in his 9 goals (10.78) for Freiburg, and you have a very decent season.

But I digress (it was a good goal though). Man Utd made sure that the title goes down to the final day with their 2-0 win over Swansea, but it would take a brave man to bet a significant amount of money on them to win the title, given Man City’s home record, and QPR’s away form. But, QPR still aren’t mathematically safe, and Mark Hughes has the double aim of getting revenge on City for sacking him, and helping out his old team. He’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but he really has exceeded expectations at QPR. With the worst of the run ins, Hughes has managed to pick up 5 wins in the last nine games – with an average opponent per win of 8.40. Impressive stuff. Wigan’s six wins in the same period have been slightly better at 7.66. Both have proved a lot of people wrong, and that’s understandable given the previous average ranked opponent per win – Wigan had 4 wins at 15.25 and QPR had 5 wins against an average ranked opponent of 12.8. There were absolutely no indicators for the massive turn around in form.

Wigan’s latest win was not against good opposition. It was against fellow Bottom 6 teams Blackburn. And it was enought to gain survival whilst relegating Rovers. I bet those people calling for Steve Kean to be named manager of the year feel a little foolish now (one example here). So with Blackburn joining Wolves (Terry Connor for best new manager?) in the Championship next season, it comes down to the final day for one of Bolton and QPR. Aston Villa will be safe on goal difference, barring a massive swing.

With games in hand all being played now, there’s a been a good bit of movement on the Top Scorers list. Robin van Persie’s double against Norwich in the 3-3 draw sees him reach the magical 30 goal mark. It’s only the third time since 2000 that a player has reached this mark (Henry and Ronaldo), so it’s a great achievement. Before last season’s 18 goals, his highest league tally in his career was a paltry (for his talent) 11 goals. The last season and a half has crucially seen him stay fit, and it’s resulted in 48 strikes in 62 appearances in the Premier League. Quality. And although he has 10 goals against Bottom 6 opponents, he’s the leading scorer versus the Top 6 with 7 goals, meaning he’s a big game player.

However, the owner of that title based on the average opponent per goal is neither van Persie or last week’s leader Adebayor. He’s shown a complete lack of respect for my average opposition leader board by hitting 2 versus Bolton (18th) last week, and another against Villa (15th) this weekend. Manu you fool. That means, that despite all the flack he’s taken (some of it deservedly), Mario Balotelli looks set to win the Big Game Player tag for this year’s Premier League with an average ranked opponent per goal of 8.77. Think goals against Man Utd, Chelsea, Newcastle and Spurs, and he’s only missing Arsenal out of the other Top 6 teams. Not bad for someone who had supposedly ruined Man City’s season.

Strangely, Rafael van der Vaart looks like going from 2010-11’s big game player, to this years flat track bully. His latest strike (also in the win over Bolton) was his 11th of a disrupted season, taking his league tally to a very decent 24 in 60 games over two seasons as an advanced midfield role.

Just looking at the Bottom 6 and Top 6 goals season on season, it’s a quite stark difference, and begs an interesting question. What makes a big game player? Looking at van der Vaart as an example it’s pretty hard to tell why. Immediately I would have pointed to injuries but he’s actually played more games this season. Team mates? Well Spurs are looking likely to finish higher this season in 4th compared to last year’s 5th. There has been a change in personnel with Adebayor taking the lone striker role, but that doesn’t explain the disappearance in the big games? At 29, he’s in his prime, so it’s not age. You’d think that I’m building to a big conclusion now after ruling out other factors, but in all honesty, I don’t know what’s brought the change. Some may point to the difficult second season syndrome (dsss), but it’s spurious. Answers on a post card please.

Big weekend ahead, with several different outcomes. However, with Bolton on a run of 5 games without a win (after 4 wins in a row), it’s unlikely that they’ll win at Stoke (14th), although they have picked up 19 points away from home – albeit at an average of 17.83 ranked opposition. In terms of the race for 3rd (in case Chelsea win the Champions League),  Arsenal (3rd), Spurs (4th) and Newcastle (5th) are facing West Brom away (10th), Fulham at home (9th) and Everton away (7th) respectively. Due to the home venue, I’d say Spurs have the easiest game (just), but Arsenal have the points on the board.

Elsewhere, Chelsea’s Didier Drogba and Ramires backed up their big game player status’ with the goals in the FA Cup Final win over Liverpool. Both scored over the two legs against Barcelona in the Champions League Semi Final, and Drogba has now become the first player to score in a whopping four different finals. Andy Carroll has shown glimpses of hope for Liverpool fans, and his goal (almost a brace) in the final wasn’t completely unexpected. Like van der Vaart, Carroll had a Big Game Player tag from last season as he led the scoring against Top 6 teams with a decent 6 strikes (9 based on the time of playing). Last night, Liverpool got bittersweet revenge on Chelsea with a 4-1 home win – just their second win against Top 6 Opponents this season:

Wigan lead the way with the best teams beaten (on average), whilst Man City are deservedly top of the league and set to win it when you look at their 27 wins against United’s. There’s something of a big game team performance with 7 win against Top 6 opposition, and a Flat Track Bully air to United’s 13 wins against bottom 6 teams. This is all based on positions at the time of playing, i’ll be reviewing all the stats again based on final league rank at the end of the season. Aside from the teams at the top, Aston Villa fan will be glad to see the end of the season after just 7 league wins, against an average opponent of 13.57. Exciting.

Cheers,

Liam

La Liga Round 37

With the league title already tied up last week, there’s only one place to start. Lionel Messi. Although Barcelona will end up with fewer medals this season than in recent years, it’s been Messi’s greatest season personally. In the last two league season’s, he’s scored a combined 65 goals in just 68 games – phenomenal. I, like many, wondered if he’d peaked already, and if he could stay at that level. Boy is my face red. In the weekend’s Barcelona derby against Espanyol, Messi gave Pep Guardiola a parting gift – scoring all the goals in a 4-0 win. That takes his league tally to a ridiculous 50 goals in 36 games. We’re going to have to invent some more words for him as I’m all out of superlatives. In all competitions for Barcelona, he’s hit 72 goals in 58 games (beating Gerd Muller’s record). When you add in his 28 assists, he’s been responsible for 100 goals in all competitions this season. Anyone who doubts his credentials as an all time great doesn’t deserve to watch him play.

In what’s been a quite frankly ridiculous season, Barcelona have now gained 90 points, and scored 112 league goals. And that’s not even good enough for first place. Real Madrid only scored the two in a 2-1 away win at Granada, to take their tally to 97 points and 117 goals. Ronaldo scored one to take his personal count to 45 in the league – a career best for him. How he must curse Messi.

So with the news on the big two out of the way, the next port of call is the race for a top 4 spot. And as with the Italian League, it’s going to go down to the final day:

Valencia tied up their customary 3rd place finish with a 1-0 over Villarreal (more on that one later), courtesy of Jonas’ 7th goal in 8 games, taking his tally to 10 for the season (12.10). It’s below 3rd that it becomes interesting. Going into the final day of the season, one of four teams can take that final Champions League spot. However, it’s all in Malaga’s hands despite a 2-1 defeat to Atletico Madrid at the weekend. They face 19th placed Sporting Gijon at home, making them clear favourites. Atletico are also facing a team fighting relegation in Villarreal (16th), whilst Levante host Bilbao, and Mallorca who beat Levante at the weekend to make it 4 wins in a row, have to try and stop Real Madrid reaching 100 points. Based on that, it’s likely to be Malaga’s spot, though with Sporting still in with a chance (albeit slim) of staying up, it should be theirs.

In terms of the average opposition stats, Messi’s 50 goals have been against an average ranked opponent of 10.22 in the league table (average position in a 20 team league is 10.5). The split of 12-25-13 (24% vs Bottom 6, 50% vs Middle 8, 26% vs Top 6) is close enough to where you’d expect it to be for a regular scorer with just Ronaldo ahead of him in goals against the Top 6 teams. Barcelona team mate Alexis Sanchez hols there best average with 6.91, whilst there was also no change at the bottom as del Moral retains the lowest average ranked team per goal with an impressively low 17.30, and no goals against Top 6 teams. Valencia’s Jonas (12.10) and Vallecano’s Costa (8.30) both move into the Top Scorers chart with goals at the weekend. Costa in particular has done it against decent teams, with 5 of his 10 against the big boys, and 4 against mid table opponents, including his double at the weekend against Seville (who scored 5 in response).

And so onto the battle to avoid relegation:

Sporting will require a miracle of sorts to escape the drop as they travel to 4th placed Malaga. They will have to hope that Vallecano (hosting 15th placed Granda) and Real Zaragoza (away at 11th placed Getafe) will both lose. Villarreal host 4th placed chasing Atletico Madrid. They looked to be safe just a few weeks back, but one win in five (against Sporting) has seen them fall right back into trouble. Couple that with Real Zaragoza’s excellent recent form and it really could be any team up to 15th that fall. Zaragoza’s latest win (4th in 5) was at home to Sporting, winning 2-1. Sporting have faced and lost to both Zaragoza and Villarreal in recent weeks as they look set to play their football in the Segunda Division next season. If I were a betting man (and i’m not), I’d go for Sporting and Villarreal to drop this weekend.

Cheers,

Liam

Serie A Round 37

Bundle!

After several court cases, disgrace, relegation and six seasons of waiting, Italy’s most decorated team finally got their hands back on the Serie A title. And how. Only twice in the history of Italian Football has a team gone undefeated in the league and on both occasions, it was a 34 game season. Juve have now gone 37 games unbeaten. And the latest was enough to win the Serie A title for 2011-12, with a 2-0 away win over 14th placed Cagliari. Mirko Vucinic got things going in the 6th minute to settle Juve nerves. It was the Montengro International’s 9th goal of the season and whilst there’s an element of a flat track bully about his goals (average opponent 14.67), no one will care one bit after the often frustrating former Roma front man scored. An own goal from Canini settled things, and as soon as the final whistle went in the Milan Derby, the Old Lady had their 30th Italian title – or their 28th, depending on your view of the Calciopoli scandal. Of course, Juventus winning the title means one thing, and it’s big:

Yep, for the first time since 2002-03, Ibrahimovic has failed to win the league title. And ironically, it’s been his best season in terms of goalscoring – hitting a massive 28 league goals (10.93) in just 31 games. And perhaps the 1-1 draw at home to Juventus when Ibrahimovic was serving a suspension, was decisive. His latest goals, were against Inter Milan in the ‘away’ Milan derby. He hit two, against Top 6 Inter, to put AC Milan 2-1 up. At that score, the title whereabouts was going to be decided on the final day. However, Stramaccioni’s Inter are a different animal than the up and down form of Ranieri’s. Diego Milito continued his excellent season with his third hat trick of the season, to take his personal tally to 23 league goals. As with Ibrahimovic, it’s been the 32 year old’s best league return, matching the 23 in 37 he hit in Spain for Zaragoza back in 2006-07. This season however, his 23 have been scored in just 29 appearances, and this latest treble against 2nd placed Milan propelled his average opposition per goal to a decent 9.43, and taken his goals against Top 6 teams to a respectable 5. In what’s been a strange season for Inter, Milito has at times been a one man rescue act (think 4 versus Palermo), and the second highest league scorer at the club is Pazzini with just 5 goals. Maicon put the cherry on the cake for the Inter Milan fans and confirmed Juventus’s title with this typically Brazilian effort:

I’ll be reviewing Juventus’ full season stats as they won the title when the season is over, and in a lovely twist, if they do go unbeaten, i’ll be comparing Juventus’ unbeatables 2011-12 to Arsenal’s invincibles of 2003-04, just for kicks.

After the title was decided, all eyes will turn to the race for 3rd place and a route to the Champions League. Going into this weekend’s fixtures, Napoli held the much coveted spot behind Juventus and AC Milan. After this latest round, they’re now 5th. How so? Well after 10 points from 12, they chose a very bad time to lose. The 2-0 defeat to Bologna (9th), Napoli gave fell behind Udinese and Lazio. Udinese moved into 3rd after a routine win over 17th placed Genoa who will have their Serie A future decided next weekend. Di Natale (12.00) did what he has done so often this season, by scoring his 22nd goal of the season against a team in the bottom 6 – his 10th against such opponents. Lazio are just two points behind them after their first win in five games (2-0 away at 11th placed Atalanta), to give them hope, whilst Inter Milan’s win over city Rivals AC Milan, mean they’re in 6th and 3 points off third, but are unlikely to get it despite the good form shown under former Under 19 coach Stramaccioni.

In terms of the Average Opposition ranking, this weekend saw a good bit of movement. Most noteably, in terms of the wooden spoon, or Flat Track Bully tag. Despite lowering his average to 12.00, Di Natale managed to shake off the unwanted label as Novara’s Marco Rigoni hit a hat trick against bottom placed Cesena to take his tally into the require double figures, and his average down to 14.91. The 32 year old has been one highlight of a poor season for Novara, as he’s scored 11 from midfield, albeit with the help of penalties. His 11 goals haven’t trouble any Top 6 team in what is a well deserved Flat Track Bully title.

Fabrizio Miccoli’s hat trick in a 4-4 computer game of a match against 12th placed Chievo lowered his average to 7.38 in the race for the Big Game Player title. The nearest challenger is Marco Di Vaio, who’s Bologna are playing 8th placed Parma. This means he’s better off not scoring and hoping that Miccoli scores against 17th placed Genoa next weekend. That will see Di Vaio nick it right at the death, although Miccoli’s 9 goals against Top 6 opponents will at least see him finish at the top of the Top 6 goals list.

Elsewhere, Milito moved into 3rd place in the golden boot race with his hat trick – level with Cavani on 23. However, there’s a different of 2 places in the opponents they’ve scored against on average, in favour of Milito. Giovinco (9.47) continued his excellent recent form with another goal in another win for Parma – this time a 2-0 win at 13th placed Siena. That’s 5 goals for the Italian in the 6 games that the club have won in a row, a run that’s seen them climb to 8th place. It took them 26 games to win their previous 6.

The last thing to be decided this season is the final relegation spot, with Lecce in 18th on 36 points (GD-15) and Genoa on 39 points (GD-21). Lecce’s 1-0 home defeat to fellow strugglers Fiorentina meant that the Viola were safe for another season after they did “a Wigan” and lost only 1 game in the last 7, whilst beating both big teams and relegation rivals.

And just to finish, a quick look at one of the main reasons why Juve won the league, and Genoa and Lecce are fighting relegation – goals conceded:

Just three goals conceded against fellow Top 6 teams tells it’s own story. In fact, in conceding only 19 goals all season, they’re 13 goals better off than 2nd placed Milan, who have only let in a decent 32. And Juventus’s defence has been laregly unchanged from the personnel seen last season, which let in 47 as they finished 7th. Well played Conte.

The updates are running a little slower than usual as I get to grips with fatherhood, but each league will be reviewed in detail once the season has ended.

Cheers,

Liam

La Liga Round 36

It’s been described by Jose Mourinho as his hardest title win, and that’s fair enough given the opponent. Whilst he won league titles in Portugal, England and Italy at the first time of asking at each club, this one took a little longer. But they’ve done it, and they’ve deserved it. Last night’s 3-0 win away at Athletic Bilbao sealed First place ahead of one of the greatest teams in the history of football, and to do it with two games to spare is certainly impressive. I was of the opinion that Manuel Pellegrini was harshly treated by Madrid after taking them to 96 points – normally enough to win any league but they needed more. They needed someone who could knock Barcelona of their perch. Mourinho was that man, with Pellegrini perhaps sacked for not keeping loan superstar, Julien Faubert. Mourinho’s Madrid have already reached 94 points, and with two games to go, I wouldn’t bet against them reaching 100. The Stats below tell the story of the title win:

Looking at the Top 6 column, there’s 8 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat this season – meaning that they’re deserved Champions. The 35 goals, scored in those games also illustrates why they won. Why is there 11 games against the other five Top 6 teams? Well, this information is taking the position at the time of playing, so it includes the 4-1 win over Athletic Bilbao back in Round 19 when the opponents were ranked 5th (now 8th). Another big factor is the incredibly small amount of points dropped – against all opponents, just six of the 30 games saw them drop points. Their 115 goals is by far and away the best, and is also a record, whilst a decent defence of 30, is just second to Barcelona’s 27. Build a title based on a solid Defence? Sod that – just score shit loads of goals. So there you have it. Title is done, Barcelona have only the Copa Del Rey to play for, and then it’s a new manager. That’s the end of that rivalry right? Wrong.

In a role reversal of last year, League Champion Ronaldo, is now trailing in the goals race to Messi. Ronaldo has a ridiculous 44 league goals after he scored in the Bilbao win (after missing a penalty – ouch) and in the weekend win over Seville (9th). Whilst Messi has an even more ridiculous (ridiculouser?) 46 league goals. He went ahead after scoring two against Rayo Vallecano (in a 7-0 away win, and then followed up with his 7th league hat trick of the season in a 4-1 win over 4th placed Malaga. This not only put him ahead in goals, but it also brought up his number against the Top 6 teams to an impressive 13. Impressive, but not as good as Ronaldo’s 16:

The Top Scorers list is dominated by Real Madrid – as three players have 20 goals or more. Off the top of my head (lazy research), I can’t recall another time in a major league that three players from the same club scored 20 or more goals? Another reason that they’re worthy champions. The 86 goals scored by Ronaldo, Higuain and Benzema (Hi-Ro-Be?) is more than any total team amount, with the exception of Barcelona’s 108.

Falcao’s goal in Round 35 against 13th placed Betis was proof if proof were needed that his 12.70 average ranked opponent is pretty fair. He’s had a great deubt season, with 23 goals (46% of their total goals), but he’ll need to be troubling the bigger teams on a more regular basis to be ranked with the best. He’s not the Flat Track Bully though, oh no. That is still with Seville’s del Moral on 17.30 and no goals against anyone good. Alexis Sanchez’s 6.91 and no goals against the bottom 6 teams makes him the big game player in this year’s La Liga.

Arsenal fans will take heart from the continued good form of Carlos Vela. He was on the scoresheet again on Wednesday in Sociedad’s 1-1 draw with 6th placed Atletico.That’s 8 goals in the last 11 games, and this was his 4th against Top 6 opposition. Back up to van Persie and Podolski next season? He and Bendtner, returning on loan will certainly be better than Young and Chamakh if Arsenal are serious about challenging next season.

With the title wrapped up, the focus switches to the race for the Top 4 spots, and the fight at the bottom. In 3rd, Valencia continued their strange form with a 4-0 win over 8th placed Osasuna. That’s Win-Lose-Win-Lose-Win, scoring 4-0-4-0-4. I guess there’s some consistancy involved there, but it’s certainly odd. They currently sit 3 points ahead of Malaga, who suffered at the hands of Barcelona in a 4-1 defeat (Messi, incidently scored 2 penalties). Malaga, in turn are 3 points ahead of Spain’s answer to Newcastle, Levante. They beat 16th place Granada 3-1 at the weekend but lost to Real Zaragoza midweek.

With Racing gone, and sporting looking set to follow, it’s looking like one from Granada, Villarreal, Vallecano and Zaragoza. And similar to the fight in the Premier League, the teams seem to have saved their best form until the end of the season (like Wigan and QPR). The big game in midweek was Sporting hosting Villarreal, and once again it was veteran Marcos Senna that drove Villarreal to victory. The combative midfielder scored his 5th goal in 13 games to help the Yellow Submarines to a vital 3-2 away win. That’s one defeat in nine now. Similarly, Real Zaragoza have given themselves a fighting chance after back to back wins against Bilbao (6th) and Levante (5th). That’s now 6 wins in 9 games for a team that were rock bottom from Round 14 to Round 30. And it’s Rayo Vallecano who look most vulnerable at the moment with 5 defeats in a row.

Cheers,

Liam