Bundesliga Round 25

12 Mar

The Bundesliga is the first to get some love this week as the Premier League round 28 isn’t complete until after tomorrow’s Merseyside Derby, and there’s another game left in Spain. After last week’s statement that the league was pretty much tied up by Dortmund, I’m now starting to doubt myself a little. Firstly, league leaders Dortmund finally had their winning run ended at the 9th attempt. A 0-0 draw away at 15th placed FC Augsberg, coupled with a win for 2nd placed Bayern Munich, means that there’s now 5 points in it, with a head to head on 11th April. And what a win it was for Bayern.

The Munich Three combined to score 6 goals at the weekend

Ninth placed Hoffenheim were the victims of a 7-1 lesson. Mario Gomez scored a hat trick (from 3 shots), Robben scored a brace and helped himself to a couple of assists, and Ribery scored once (the loser), but set up three. Toni Kroos scored the other. Even Hoffenheim’s goal was scored by Bayern. So whilst I still think the league will end up in Dortmund’s hands, a lot will be decided in the top of the table clash.

In terms of goals, Gomez’s treble puts him clear at the top again. Even though his hat trick was against 9th placed opposition, it actually improved the average ranking of the opponent’s he’s scored against, with 12.00. It still suggests that he’s a borderline flat track bully, and just the 1 goal against Top 6 opponents will back that up. Second place in the goalscoring charts is Dutchman Huntelaar. After recovering from his knock out goal against England, he was back on the scoresheet at the weekend against 12th place Hamburg. These opponents fit in nicely with his 12.68 average, and a whopping 11 goals against bottom 6 opponents suggest he’s an even bigger flat track bully than Gomez. But he’s not the worst.

Once again, that title stays with Martin Harnik at Stuttgart, with a rating of 14.29. Bremen’s Claudio Pizarro is next in line with a ranking of 12.69 per goal. Interestingly, it’s 4 of the top 5 scorers that have the worst ranked opposition per goal – with only Arsenal target/player breaking up the list, with a decent 9.19. Top of the list once more is Marco Reus, but he once again failed to score this weekend as Monchengladbach could only muster up a 0-0 draw against bottom placed Freiburg. It was quite obvious that Reus didn’t score as he only does it in the big games.

Elsewhere, our favourite Egyptian, Zidan continued his phenomenal scoring rate for Mainz. He scored the winner against Nurenberg in a 2-1 win. That’s now 6 games played since returning to his former club, and he’s scored in all of them, whilst being responsible for 5 points. His average opposition ranking is a decent 7.50 as well. One trend that isn’t so wanted is Kaiserslautern’s. They’ve now gone 15 games without a win, and whilst they have drawn 9 of them, 9 points from 45 isn’t too clever.

We haven’t looked at the importance of the goals for a few weeks, so now’s as good a time as any:

Although he failed to score against Werder Bremen (the git – see below), Mohammed Abdellaoue is still the most importart player to his team (in terms of goals/points). His 11 goals this season have been worth 16 points to Hannover, which equates to 46% of their points. That leaves him top of both the points and percentage standings. The most efficient goals this season have been scored Augsburg’s Callsen-Bracker and Nurenberg’s Esswein, who both have gained 6 points from just 4 goals – a return of 150% in the goals to points ratio. The most pointless (not literally)? Well unsurprisingly it belongs to the top 2 scorers – Gomez and Huntelaar, who have a combined tally of 40 goals, which have been worth a rather disappointing 14 points. So not only are they flat track bullies, their goals aren’t particularly important either. Pizarro at least has provided 11 points for his 16 goals, which isn’t too bad, and is te second highest points scoring in the league.

Prediction Corner Revisited:

And so onto the main event (because it went well this week) – a review of prediction corner! At the end of the Round 24 post, I tried my luck or rather statistical based predictions on the Bundesliga.

  1. Mohammed Abdellaoue to score against Top 6 Werder Bremen. The Norwegian marksman has an average opposition of 7.00, and has 5 goals against Top 6 opponent’s so far. Although, they’ve all been at home.
  2. Ribery’s average of 9.80 should put him in good position to score against 10th placed Hoffenheim.
  3. Werder Bremen specialise in beating mid table opposition (7 of 10 wins), so they should be favourites to beat Hannover at home. Hannover have 2 wins against Top 6 opponents, but they were both at home (Munich and Bremen). Pizarro is the most likely scorer.
  4. Mario Gomez to continue his goals scoring against very average teams. He has 11 versus the mid table opposition, so 10th placed Hoffenheim fit the bill. Huntelaar would have been a shoe in for Schalke against Hamburg, but he’s still feeling the effects of the grass last week.
  5. Dortmund to win – they beat everyone anyway.

Well I can count that as a half decent prediction weekend. In the first prediction, Abdellaoue let me down. He didn’t even have a shot! Anyway, it’s not the end of the world as Ribery scored, Werder Bremen beat Hannover (have that Abdellaoue), and Pizarro scored. But that’s not all, Gomez also scored as did Huntelaar (who I thought was gonna miss the game through injury). That’s 5 correct predictions (ignore the numbering), let down by Dortmund’s draw. I should put together a site fund to see how far it can get me, but cobwebs, moth balls and shoe laces aren’t accepted by most of the big betting companies….

Rest of the league’s to follow this week.

Cheers,

Liam

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